Thursday 25 August 2011

Boiler Room Guidance

Last week, three people were jailed for their part in a boiler room scam dating back to 2007
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/pages/Library/Communication/PR/2011/073.shtml

I thought it worth reminding clients that as part of our service Green Financial have long offered: “The Second Opinion Service” – this is where we make ourselves available to consider new ideas, wherever they may originate from

Over the years clients have utilised this service in many ways, from having us check the ‘small print’ on accounts offered by banks (we’ve helped clients avoid tie-ins, falling rates and hidden high charges)

Other times clients may have read in the press of an investment fund and want to know if we are aware of it and have considered it (usually the answer is yes)

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

More often than not it is a client’s friend or colleague who has heard of a tax wheeze, scheme or investment that seems too good to be true (and it usually is!)

One such example was a client who called up recently informing us of a ‘share opportunity’ they had been telephoned about out of the blue. They were wary and my alarm bell immediately rang. A little swift research on my part indicated the company offering the shares were not FSA (Financial Services Authority) registered and that the company appeared to only have a PO Box communication address. I warned the client off the venture and they agreed. When the company called back, the client told them they had discussed the matter with their IFA, did not wish to hear from them again, and if they did call back would pass their details to me and the FSA to deal with. There were no further calls.

BOILER ROOMS

As mentioned at the start of this post, three people were jailed last week, for a total of 19 years for a £27.5m boiler room scam.

Tomas Wilmot was sentenced to nine years in prison while his sons Kevin and Christopher were given five years each.

The trio were convicted of conspiracy to defraud. The Wilmots had a syndicate of boiler rooms that defrauded around 1,700 investors out of a total of £27.5m. Like so many boiler room scams of the past, many of the victims were elderly and often suffering from serious illness.

SO WHAT IS A BOILER ROOM?

As with the Wilmots, a boiler room is typically a ‘fly by night’ business but these days are usually well organised, well funded and seem plausible. They typically use high pressure sales techniques to sell ‘sure-thing’ (in my language, too good to be true) investments with a promise of massive returns. What they are normally selling is either worthless stock in unquoted companies or often stock in companies that don’t exist at all.

The more complex boiler rooms, rather than lasting for a while, then suddenly disappearing (only for the same people to pop up elsewhere under a different name) sometimes migrate to actually giving back a few returns initially, thus lulling the purchaser into a falso sense of security. These are then known as ‘Ponzi’ schemes , made more famous recently by Bernie Madoff.

HOW DO THEY WORK?

It is normally a telephone ‘cold-call’, using phone numbers easily obtainable from publicly available lists. Think how often you are asked for your details and how many organisations have your number. The UK actually has laws against this type of cold calling but it doesn’t stop the fraudsters. They simply base the callers abroad. It could be as near as mainland Spain, continental Europe, the US and even as far afield as India these days. This means they are beyond the jurisdiction of the FSA and can approach, anyone, anywhere, anytime.

Boiler rooms look and sound genuine. As I’ve already said they can seem perfectly legitimate and have many ways of putting this across. They may name drop companies you have heard of, have a genuine looking UK address or phone number and of course a professional looking website. The sales staff are VERY persistent and may continue to call for months in the hope of wearing down the recipient or catching them off guard.

Even those that consider themselves experienced investors may get caught out.

The FSA say that they reckon the average victim of a boiler room scam loses £20,000

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, if it seems to good to be true, it probably is.

WHAT IF YOU ARE CONTACTED?

If you are a client of Green Financial and you are ever approached, remember to take advantage of The Second Opinion Service before committing.

The FSA say if anyone ever telephones you univited offering shares for sale, don’t worry about being polite or offending the caller, just hang up.

You can also call the FSA on 0845 606 1234

The FSA also have more information on their website :
http://www.fsa.gov.uk/Pages/consumerinformation/scamsandswindles/investment_scams/boiler_room/index.shtml



Tuesday 23 August 2011

Asset Class - Growth & Inflation

A few comparisons of investment asset classes and returns, including the effects of inflation, from the 1940's, 1960's and 1980's

£100 deposited in 1945, gross interest reinvested, now worth £7,490 but £234 inflation adjusted

£100 in Gilts in 1960, gross income reinvested, now worth £5,565 but £179 inflation adjusted

£100 in equities in 1960, gross dividend reinvested, now worth £136,107 but £4,370 inflation adjusted



Source: Barclays Capital, 2010

I wonder what results the next fifty years or so will bring?

Friday 5 August 2011

Client Communication re Investment Markets

No doubt over the coming days and weeks financial journalists will have a field day with what is going on in the markets. I recently read a report in the Economist that considered the type and variety of language and grammar used in differing stockmarket conditions. Typically the language used when markets were rising was restricted in variety and impact. Fairly everyday words like ‘gain’, ‘rise’, ‘up’ were commonplace and frequent. But when markets headed the other way lesser used words such as ‘crash’, ‘slide’, ‘tumble’, ‘dive’ and ‘plummet’ all appeared along with many more such alarming verbs.

[As I type, I just read on Twitter: "FTSE dives as global rout triggers new recession fears " - I couldn't have proved my point any better if I wrote the headline myself!]

That is not to say markets are not down, just to caution against getting caught up in media hyperbole.

As a client, you will remember one of my investment mantras is “Time, not timing”. What this means is time in the markets is what matters, not trying to beat the market by timing your moves.

The recent market manoeuvre I advised was in response to a potentially extraordinary event whereby I suggested exiting many equity markets just in case the US defaulted on its debt. I didn’t think they would, nor did most commentators and as it turned out they didn’t. But if they had things could have been very bad – indeed I may have had to type words such as tumble, dive and plummet!

Going back into the markets shortly after the decision probably saved around 2%*
*actual figure per individual will depend on exactly when you came out and went back in

Since then, many world stockmarkets have fallen (or crashed, tumbled and plummeted depending on what you read) further and this is where it is good to remember the usual Green Financial Investment Management Process which we discussed in regard to your financial aims.

Next time we rebalance your portfolio, towards the beginning of September, if markets have recovered, all well and good. But if they haven’t, the regular process will continue and in taking the percentages back to your normal mixture (the ‘pyramid’, or ‘triangle’ I drew when we discussed your investments) we will be using lower volatility assets, such as cash and fixed interest to purchase more of the higher volatility assets such as stocks and shares.

In effect, there will be a sale on in the stockmarket and you will be buying when prices are low, in order to one day sell when they are higher – surely the aim of investing?

Whereas those that believe what they read in the papers and are now selling equities are doing the opposite. They bought high and are selling low. Madness!

The above, of course, relies on that word again, TIME.

I always ensure the amount of money in the markets is appropriate for your stated attitude to volatility and risk including appetite for loss and need for gain.

Stockmarkets WILL return to their previous levels. They always do. I just don’t know when that will be (and no-one else does - if they claim to, they are lying or a fool).

So if you are worried or concerned by anything you see or hear please do contact me.

Playing Footsie

What is the FTSE?

or FTSE - What's in a name?

It is pronounced ‘footsie’ or for fans of phonetics: /ˈfʊtsiː/
The FTSE isn’t one thing. The name derives from the acronym of its two parent companies, The Financial Times and the London Stock Exchange, but has since been registered as a company in its own right.

The London Stock Exchange has a market capitalization of over $3.5 trillion.
Based on this measure it is the 4th largest exchange in the world.

There are, in fact, a number of indices, many of which are famous – such as the FTSE100 and the FTSE AllShare. Some though, are not so well known.


Following is a brief description of each



FTSE100

Arguably the most famous of the FTSE indices, the FTSE100 started in 1984 with a base level of 1,000

Newspapers overnight (5th August 2011) were telling how the FTSE100 fell yesterday to 5,300. The lowest it has been in the last year is 5,070 with the 12 month high 6,105

This index simply consists of the 100 largest companies (by capitalisation) in the UK. It represents about 80% of the entire UK market.

The top 5 UK shares themselves represent almost 30% of the FTSE100

The top 10 UK shares represent almost 50% of the FTSE100

(have a look at yesterday's blog post for the top 10 rundown and a few FTSE100 fun facts and figures)

The FTSE100 high is when it almost reached 7,000 – hitting 6,950 on 30 December 1999

After the so called credit crunch and economic meltdown in 2007-2010 it fell back below 3,500

In more recent times it has been bobbling around the 6,000 mark in 2011 yet was as low as just over 5,000 in the last 12 months (see above)



FTSE250

known as mid caps

The next 250 largest (after the first 100) companies in the UK

This index is about 15% of the total market by capitalization



FTSE SmallCap

This index gives values to companies not deemed large enough to be included in the 350 stocks that make up the FTSE 100 and FTSE250

There are a number of shares available that rarely trade and these are screened out of the index.

It tracks around 300+ shares – and most investors could trade in as many shares (or as great a volume) in these as they wished.

It represents about 2% of the market.

Two versions are available – one that includes investment trusts and one that doesn’t



FTSE Fledgling

Very small companies!

Too small in fact, to be included in the FTSE AllShare (see below)



FTSE All Small

Combining the FTSE Smallcap and FTSE Fledgling with around 525+ stocks making up this index – but they represent less than 4% of the total market. Like the Smallcap, two versions exist, with and without Investment Trusts



FTSE 350

As the name indicates, it consists of the companies in the FTSE100 and FTSE250.

This amounts to just over 95% of the total market

The content could be considered as the most actively traded large and medium sized companies in the UK



FTSE Allshare

This index has been in existence since 1962

It covers all 3 segments of the UK market – large, medium and small
Many would say that if your aim is to invest in the UK markets as a whole in order to follow market sentiment then this is the index to follow, rather than the more popular FTSE100
But as the FTSE100 steals the headlines on news bulletins and is a badge of honour for those listed in it,  the FTSE AllShare remains the lesser known index.



FT30

Avid blog readers and attendees of my estate planning seminars will already be aware of this little known index. Much like it’s more familiar and ancient cousin from across the pond, the Dow, this index has a relatively small number of companies – 30 if you hadn’t already guessed. It consists of what are known as ‘blue-chip’ stocks.

Although rarely referred to today, it is the oldest continuous index of shares in the UK, having started life in 1935 – this also makes it one of the older indexes world wide

 
I hope you have enjoyed this little game of footsie.

Thursday 4 August 2011

FTSE100 facts & figures

With all the stockmarket up and downs in the news, I thought I'd take a lighter look at the FTSE index most likely to be quoted on the news, the FTSE100:

Most Expensive
As at the time of this survey (March 2011), Rio Tinto was also the most expensive share in the FTSE 100 at 4088, closely followed by the company in 11th place in the size table (see below), Anglo American at 3218


A Numbers Game
Only two companies made it in with a number in their name – 3i group and G4S


Last Man Standing
In last place – the 100 in the FTSE 100 if you will, is Alliance Trust

No Happy Returns
Eight of the 100 currently pay no dividend with a further 12 paying less than 1%

Initial Thoughts
‘S’ is the most popular initial letter. 12 companies in the FTSE 100 start with this

There are 3 letters all with 11 companies. ‘A’, ‘I’ and ‘R’ although counting Royal Dutch Shell as two ‘R’s rather than one ‘S’ still feels like cheating.

Alphabetically bringing up the rear, yet in a respectable 14th place by size is Xstrata



And here, pop pickers (or should that be stock pickers?) are the Top 10 shares in UK FTSE100 as at March 2011


Company name, Sector, %age of FTSE 100, dividend yield



1 HSBC, finance (banking), 7.61, 5.49%

2 Vodafone, telecoms, 6.07, 4.72%

3 BP, oil/gas, 5.93, 0.89%

4 Shell A (properly known as Royal Dutch Shell), oil/gas, 4.98, 4.17%

5 Rio Tinto, basic (mining), 4.05, 1.64%

6 GlaxoSmithKline, health (pharmaceuticals), 4.03, 5.49%

7 Shell B, oil/gas, 3.76, 4.94%

8 BHP Billiton, basic, 3.41, 2.38%

9 BG Group, oil/gas, 3.17, 0.9%

10 BAT (British American Tobacco), goods, 3.16, 4.69%

 
More FTSE facts and figures if this post proves popular. FTSE - What's in a name? tomorrow

Monday 1 August 2011

US Update

Wise Words from Citywire:
http://www.citywire.co.uk/money/us-debt-crisis-what-should-investors-do-now/a512540?ref=citywire-money-latest-news-list

Stock markets are jumping today at relief that US politicians appear to be coming to their senses and are close to a deal on the debt ceiling talks.
[IG: This after the market slides on Friday and my extraordinary email to clients on Wednesday]


Fingers crossed, the compromise hammered out between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate and House of Representatives will avoid the US sliding towards a default on its government bonds.

Although the risk of the US not paying the interest on its debts has looked remote, the mere thought that the world’s biggest economy could screw up so badly has rightly rattled everyone – investors, consumers and businesses.

After a terrible week for shares (US down 4% and FTSE 100 down 2%) last week, Asian and European markets have bounced back today.

What is 'risk free'?

However, even if the deal gets through Congress by tomorrow’s deadline, the problems are not over. The leading credit rating agencies have made it clear that the US could still suffer an historic downgrade and lose its cherished top AAA rating.

This takes investors into uncharted territory. Although US treasuries may not slump immediately, no one is sure. This is highly significant as US government bonds have traditionally been the ‘risk-free asset’ and the benchmark against which all other investments are priced. If ‘risk-free’ is no longer that, what does it mean for other classes of investment, principally bonds, shares and commodities? Expect a period of turbulence as the world works through this one.

Ironically, the bad economic data that came out of the US on Friday may support US treasury prices. The US remains the biggest and most liquid market in government bonds so investors will presumably keep faith in it, particularly if interest payments (coupons) are no longer under threat.

However, if the US administration responds to the alarming sluggishness of the US economy with more quantitative easing (that is, printing money by buying back assets such as bonds to inject cash and confidence into the financial system) then all bets may be off. Quantitative easing may, or may not, have succeeded in saving the financial system but it sure as hell has distorted investment markets by creating a bubble in UK and US government bonds.

Greek tragedy in Europe

Meanwhile, [IG: As regular readers of the monthly market commentary will know] the eurozone’s debt crisis rumbles on. At the risk of being fatalistic it looks to me that whatever the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund (the 'troika') decide to do, the Greek tragedy will unfold painfully as the debt excesses of the past are dealt with.

Greece has been bailed out for a second time but in such a way that the financial stability of the banking system is again being questioned (thanks to those bond ‘haircuts’) while Spain and Italy are still in the firing line with a European bailout fund that is currently too small to help them.

What it boils down to

So what does this mean for investors worried about their Sipps, pensions and ISAs? Having surveyed the recent comments of leading fund managers, I think it boils down to keeping your eyes peeled to see what happens next, staying cautious but holding your nerve for now.
[IG: I will be doing just this and writing toclients with an update and any recommended actions as soon as I think it appropriate]

Cash: The next few weeks and months may be turbulent so it is probably a good idea to have a cash buffer in your portfolio - [IG: as I recommend all clients do - I make sure of this when financial planning], to protect its value if markets fall but also to give you some fire power to invest if markets recover

IG: Nice to have my work validated and see that what I wrote out last week to clients is pretty much being echoed by a leading company such as Citywire this week